Sales are trudging along modestly, with a slight dip in Total Number of Sales from last Quarter. For the year, we stand at 77 Home Sales since Jan. 1 2007. (That means only 16 sales since we last talked.)  However, historically, this is Wickenburg’s slow season, and we’re headed right into our Peak Season. The breakdown is relatively evenly spread!

Of the 77 sales they break down like this: 

Price Range                                Number of Homes Sold

$  0- 250,000                                       32

$ 251,000-500,000                            29

$ 501,000 – UP                                   16

 

Now Look at it compared to 2006!: 

Total Sales for Same Time Period: 108!!!

$ 0-250,000                                         44

$ 251,000-500,000                             48

$ 501,000- UP                                     16

The interesting thing is, that while we are way behind in Total Sales, we have had just as many “OVER $500,000” Sales as 2006!

One possible reason is that In the Upper End Market, Wickenburg continues to be a Bargain compared to other areas like Cave Creek, Carefree, and even other parts of the Country!

            Land Sales are not Fairing quite so well:  For all of 2007, in Wickenburg, only 19 Pieces of Land sold!!! And all were under $400,000 except 2!!!  (3 of those Sales were in Vista Royale and 2 were in Moreton Airpark.)  Compare that to 2006 when we had 52 Land Sales with 45 of them under $400,000!  The Land Rush continues to be on pause for now.

  But “What’s gonna happen to the Market when all these new Wickenburg Developments hit?”

  Real Estate is just a Commodity.   And as with ANY Commodity, the main forces that guide it are SUPPLY and DEMAND!  

As of this writing, there are currently 188 PROPERTIES FOR SALE IN WICKENBURG!!  (an all time High?!) and increasing every week!     SO here are the 3 possible scenarios : 

 1.) The Supply (Inventory) continues to increase (and it will) and Demand does NOT, (meaning we stay with the same number of Real Buyers, or perhaps a slight increase of Buyers). This will create a slight downward pressure on pricing, aka BUYERS MARKET.  The Buyers will have an incredible variety of VERY NICE HOMES to pick from.  VALUE will win out.

2.)    Supply goes Up but so does DEMAND, meaning increased number of

Buyers. This will mean we will see a slow UPWARD pressure on prices. This actually could happen! The Developers of these new Projects are going to have to spend LOTS OF MONEY to advertise outside of the Wickenburg Area to bring in new Customers. Wickenburg Ranch vowed to spend $1 Million dollars to market their development.  The others will have to do the same, because all of these new developments will be dead in the water without MORE BUYERS.

3.)    Inventory Stays Flat, Demand Increases.  If this unlikely scenario were to happen, we’d see a sharp rise in prices, like a couple of years ago. I don’t see that happening.

I’m going to speculate that we will be in Scenario Number 1 FOR THE SHORT TERM. (1-3 years.) These new Developments are going to gradually come into play and the Advertising necessary to get buyers up here in droves is going to take a while. But with continued exposure, even on a National Scale, (ie: the Desert Caballeros Museum getting several articles written in large Magazines,)  Wickenburg is no longer going to be the Best Kept Secret, that it is. In 10 years you wont recognize it. 

Robert Hipman Economist